Back in 2018, it took just eight words to electrify the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.
The Shift of Stance and Settled Debates
Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on the EU
However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While EU relations is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid which was firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.
David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
While the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.
But, far from deciding that this makes America an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter and The Ghost from the Past
This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an attempt to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Risk & A Wise Memory
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the effect that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
